Delusional SpaceNazi and democracy destroyer Elon Musk says his company will launch its first rockets to Mars in 2026, and could have human missions sent to the Red Planet as early as 2029, but for sure by 2031. Well, that’s piffle for a lot of reasons. We won’t see a human flight to Mars for many, many more years and not likely to happen within my remaining lifetime (a couple of decades at least, I hope). But despite the ridiculousness of his posturing, sycophantic media continue to shill for Musk and his wacky ideas by publishing his words without actually analysing them or considering the science and engineering requirements of a Mars mission. Not, he’s not “audacious” with a “bold vision” as some uncritical, pandering media paint him: he’s promoting derranged fantasy, not science.
Given the failure of SpaceX to develop a rocket capable of even getting to the Moon (384,000 km away), let alone Mars (56 million km away at its closest; an average of 225 million km and 401 million km at its furthest), despite Shadow President Muskolini’s ketamine-fueled fever dreams, I don’t think they will even be able to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars within five years, let alone one.*
I was raised on science fiction. I’ve been reading about and watching movies about Mars since my childhood. I still do. I have longed to see humans expand into space and travel to other planets for almost seven decades. I grew up expecting to be able to take a shuttle to an orbiting hotel and from them a spaceliner to visit the Moon colony. I thought people would be living on Mars and mining the asteroids by now. So it pains me to say it, Musk’s boastful promises are full of shit.
Okay, fair enough: everything about the WeasElon is shitty, but this is just about his Mars bullshit. And keep in mind: Musk doesn’t design or build any of this stuff. He hires others to do it and buys companies that make things, then makes pronoucements about things he doesn’t understand. He’s not a genius: he’s a corporate raider. And yes: a racist, fascist, anti-democracy one at that. And keep in mind that his vaunted Cybertrucks-cum-dumptser-mimics have all been recalled for such crappy quality builds that pieces can fly off them when driving. That’s the sort of crap he builds. But let’s not get too distracted.
Recall that back in 2017, before Musk took on his current role of Trump puppeteer, he told the media he would reveal “major improvements” to his plan to colonize Mars, “most likely in the shape of changes to a two-part, 40-storey-tall vehicle called the Interplanetary Transport System which is expected to take the first 100-200 people to the Red Planet.” And back then, we were also told “SpaceX plans to land at least two cargo ships on Mars in 2022, to ‘confirm water resources and identify hazards’ and ‘place power, mining, and life support infrastructure for future flights.’
We’re still waiting. And waiting for this prediction, too:
In 2024, Musk wants to see four ships, two of which will be crewed with 100 people each, two of which will be cargo, make the three-month journey.
SpaceX’s entire Mars colonization program seems built more on wishful thinking and comic book visions than calculated engineering and science. The dangers to humans in his plans get glossed over or ignored. Reality doesn’t seem to hinder Musk any more than ethics or morality hinder his ongoing efforts to destroy America’s democracy and with it the bureaucracy that keeps it functioning.
Musk is now promising to crew the first mission in 2026 with Optimus, Tesla’s as-yet-unfinished humanoid robot as its only passenger, compounding the silliness. No word on whether he later plans to try to rescue Robby the AI Robot after it arrives at Mars and spends lonely years in isolation dreaming of Skynet until real humans arrive.**
Earlier this month, BBC reported SpaceX’s vaunted yet unsuccessful “Starship” rocket — the version that’s supposed to carry things and people to the Moon and beyond — has “suffered multiple failures in tests. One of the test rockets exploded minutes after it was launched from Texas as part of a test last week, the second failure this year after a similar “rapid unscheduled disassembly” in January.” Yet as recently as September 2024, Muskolini wrote on his toxic, rightwing, Russian-bot-infested platform Xitter that an uncrewed mission would launch “in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.” He added:
Flight rate will grow exponentially from there, with the goal of building a self-sustaining city in about 20 years. Being multiplanetary will vastly increase the probable lifespan of consciousness, as we will no longer have all our eggs, literally and metabolically, on one planet.
I’ve played games like that (Surviving Mars, Per Apserpa, and others. They’re great fun and marketed as simulations, but they’re still just games.
No one has a device that can build the necessary structures off-planet. No one has ever tested even empty habitats on another planet to see how things like insulation, power, and water work. Everything is still speculative, the stuff of science fiction. And given the extremely hostile environments outside Earth, it is almost guaranteed humans will need an underground habitat to survive more than a brief visit, and no one has equipment that can do more than a drill some very small test sites on another world. No one even knows how or even if we can get any heavy construction equipment to another world.
Let’s look at some of the challenges. First, I highly recommend you read Kelly and Zach Weinersmith’s excellent book, A City on Mars (Penguin Books, 2023). It’s subtitled, Can we settle space, should we settle space, and have we really thought this through? And while somewhat rhetorical, the answer to all three parts of that question is no. Or perhaps “not yet.” We simply do not have the technological expertise yet, let alone the hardware to do it on the scale Musk is pontificating about. And this book is very, very good at explaining all of that, as well as pointing out many other issues and challenges that are often overlooked in the conversations about colonizing other worlds.
As the book description notes, “Space technologies and space business are progressing fast, but we lack the knowledge needed to have space kids, build space farms, and create space nations in a way that doesn’t spark conflict back home. In a world hurtling toward human expansion into space, A City on Mars investigates whether the dream of new worlds won’t create nightmares, both for settlers and the people they leave behind.”
First, Starship, the main rocket intended to get a payload to the Moon and Mars (and in the case of humans, get them back), is designed to be fuelled in space. We don’t have the technology to do that yet. Yes, it’s possible to engineer it from existing technology such as that used to dock with and restock the ISS. But so far, it hasn’t been built or tested in orbit. Right now, SpaceX hasn’t managed to get a rocket into orbit where they can even experiment with refuelling. in 2019, Musk predicted Starship would have its first commercial flight by 2021 and an “orbital Starship could make its flight debut” in 2020. We’re still waiting.
Musk also predicted in 2024 that he’d be building his own Moon base along with his Mars colony, fed by “thousands” of spaceships travelling from Earth to the Red Planet, regardless of the environmental damage this would cause to Earth:
He wants to build a fleet of Starships with specialized variants for the Earth, Moon, and Mars – the latter being designed to be dismantled upon landing to provide colonists with building materials. He foresees a convoy of a thousand ships assembling and fueling in Earth orbit as they await the optimum time to go to Mars – a window that occurs every 26 months for the beginning of the 259-day journey. That alone will require 10 launches a day every day to support.
Second, a habitat module to house several humans on a return flight to Mars has never been designed let alone built. Given its rather large size, it will have to be built on Earth in segments, then each piece sent into orbit to be assembled in space, and tested there for integrity and operations. And yes it has to be big: it has to contain all the food, oxygen, and water for the crew for at least three years, plus recycling units for waste and water, air scubbers, sleeping areas, radiation shielding, command section, communications, toilet and shower, observation area, radar and telescope equipment, maneuvering rockets and fuel, solar panels plus battery backups, lights, computers, kitchen and equipment, seating, clothing and personal belongings lockers, space for suits and helmets, medical equipment and supplies, exercise equipment, entertainment devices, laundry facilities, and even possibly a lander for humans to get to the surface (with everything needed for them to survive there and then get back to the habitat)… everything the ISS has and more, without any resupply during the trip.
Hell, no one has even got plans as to how to get those segments into orbit, nor how they can be assembled and tested there. Humans working in suits in space, using powered equipment will be necessary to make it happen. And aside from some brief space walks, this sort of work in orbit has never been attempted before.
Third, no one has any idea what the effects of a nine-month or longer space trip in a tiny habitat subject to the radiation of space will have on human psychology or physiology. Humans have spent most of their orbital time within the planet’s magnetosphere, which mitigates much of the threat of radiation. Outside that protection, radiation is much stronger. We also know that there are debilitating and sometimes serious side-effects from being weightless for long periods and that astronauts can take days or weeks to recover from them once back on Earth. Astronauts will have to have UV or sun-spectrum lights on board to help maintain mood and vitamin D, and exercise equipment to help prevent severe muscle and bone loss.
That radiation, warns Space.com, could have long-term effects well beyond the mission itself:
High radiation exposure increases astronauts’ risk of developing cancer later in life, but there are more immediate concerns as well. For instance, a recent study determined that crewmembers on a Red Planet mission will likely receive cumulative doses high enough to damage their central nervous systems. Astronauts’ moods, memory and learning ability may be compromised as a result, the study found.
And on top of that, the astronauts’ eyesight is at risk:
Fogarty mentioned another issue that requires focused research attention — spaceflight-associated neuro-ocular syndrome (SANS), also known as visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP). SANS describes the potentially significant and long-lasting vision problems that spaceflight can induce in astronauts, likely because of fluid shifts that increase pressure inside the skull.
SANS “right now in low Earth orbit is very, very manageable and recoverable, but we don’t know the system well enough to predict whether it will remain that way for something like an exploration mission,” Fogarty said. “So, this is one of our highest-priority physiological areas that we’re studying right now.”
There are concerns that human kidneys might be the first organ to fail during that long voyage, in large part to cosmic radiation. Earth.com reports that
Kidneys have been a big question mark. Recent work reveals that these important organs could face more trouble than previously assumed, including a higher risk of stones and lasting damage…
Findings revealed that the structure and function of the kidneys are altered by spaceflight, with galactic radiation causing permanent damage that would jeopardize any long-distance mission…
If scientists don’t develop new ways to protect the kidneys, any astronaut that makes it to Mars will likely need dialysis on the way home or upon arrival.
Remember, in Mars orbit, it’s a 20-minute time delay between sending to and receiving a message from Earth, so no one can get immediate or emergency advice about what to do. Can we do surgery in a weightless environment where blood cannot be contained?
How will eating packaged, processed and reheated food for three years without a single fresh item, and drinking recycled urine and grey water affect people’s morale? Don’t forget: this is a long trip. A spaceship launched from Earth currently takes between 128 and 333 days to reach Mars, depending on distance, acceleration, and trajectory (an average of about six months one way). Musk has said his as-yet-undeveloped “Interplanetary Transport System” (ITS) will make the journey in a mere 80 days, and, without any evidence to support it, SpaceX says it expects to reduce that time to about a month.
Even if you accept these wildly unsubstantiated times, imagine 80 days each way plus several days on the surface, and a few days to get everyone into orbit, systems checked, and launch-ready. Let’s say 180 days, or six months total time in space. The habitat has to carry everything with it for all that time.
Another concern is that the closed environment of the habitat could allow hostile microbes, fungi, or viruses (or all three) to flourish. Mold has long been a concern on the ISS, especially since some strains can withstand much higher levels of radiation than humans. An article in NewSpaceEconomy called mold the “hidden danger astronauts face.” It noted:
Mold is a type of fungus that thrives in moist environments, making space stations an ideal breeding ground for it.
There are several factors that contribute to the growth of mold in space stations. One of the biggest factors is humidity. In space, humidity is created by the astronauts themselves, as their bodies release moisture through perspiration and respiration. Additionally, water used for cleaning or cooking can also contribute to humidity levels. Since there is no natural ventilation in space, the humidity can build up and create the ideal conditions for mold growth.
The article listed as possible threats respiratory problems; infections; allergic reactions; structural damage; and reduced mission effectiveness by causing crew members to become sick or by damaging critical equipment and systems. Drug-reistant bacteria are also a current problem on the ISS and they have been mutating. One study reported, “The strains were able to viably persist in the ISS over time with a significant abundance. E. bugandensis coexisted with multiple other microorganisms, and in some cases could have helped those organisms survive.”
Fourth: Even if humans reach Mars, we don’t yet have a lander that can take one or more people to the surface, then get them back up to the mothership.
Fifth: We don’t know what protective gear humans will need on Mars to protect against the cold, the radiation, the duststorms and the toxic surface and no one can test it properly before we reach Mars. Yes, toxic: a recent story in the Guardian was headlined, Martian dust may pose health risk to humans exploring red planet, study finds. It noted:
A new study identifies some of the health hazards and discusses the kind of personal protective equipment that astronauts might need.
During Apollo missions to the moon, astronauts suffered from exposure to lunar dust. It clung to spacesuits and seeped into the lunar landers, causing coughing, runny eyes and irritated throats. Studies showed that chronic health effects would result from prolonged exposure. Martian dust isn’t as sharp and abrasive as lunar dust, but it does have the same tendency to stick to everything, and the fine particles (about 4% the width of a human hair) can penetrate deep into lungs and enter the bloodstream. Toxic substances in the dust include silica, gypsum and various metals.
“A mission to Mars does not have the luxury of rapid return to Earth for treatment,” the researchers write in the journal GeoHealth. And the 40-minute communication delay will limit the usefulness of remote medical support from Earth. Instead, the researchers stress that limiting exposure to dust is essential, requiring air filters, self-cleaning space suits and electrostatic repulsion devices, for example.
The original report in GeoHealth adds this:
Toxic components of martian dust include perchlorates, silica, nanophase iron oxides, and gypsum in addition to trace amounts of toxic metals whose abundances are debated: chromium, beryllium, arsenic, and cadmium. Predicted effects of dust exposure ranges from asymptomatic to life-threatening, with many substances being carcinogenic and most damage impacting the pulmonary system. The longer transit time for astronauts to return home makes the operations of performing emergency medical treatment more difficult and increases both the likelihood and consequences of developing chronic disease. Exposure mitigation needs to be prioritized; however, supplements may be taken to prevent disease from breakthrough exposures, and treatment regimens could lessen morbidity and mortality. Treatments and equipment need to be carefully considered and transported with the astronauts to be prepared for all possible scenarios.
So not only could the dust be toxic to those on the surface, they will bring it back with them to the habitat and possibly make themselves and others ill. The habitat will need to have medical equipment and someone trained to deal with the effects.
Don’t be misled by terms like “terraforming.” Mars will never be like Earth. Its gravity is too low to hold a dense enough atmosphere for us to breathe. Humans will never be able to walk on its surface when not completely encased in thick, protective gear and helmet. Nothing like Earth plants will grow on Mars because, aside from the frigid temperatures, the planet-wide dust storms, the dryness, and the destructive solar radiation, it has no soil. It has rocks and dust, but no bacteria to create soil and transport nutrients to roots. There may be underground hydroponics and artificial gardens if a colony is built, but never on the surface.
Mars is cold. The worst Canadian winter is summer in comparison. The average temperature is -60 Celsius, with fluctuations depending on season and latitude. Space.com notes it can reach as low as -128C (about -200F). It adds,
A summer day on Mars may get up to 70 degrees F (20 degrees C) near the equator, but at night the temperature can plummet to about minus 100 degrees F (minus 73 degrees C)… As a point of comparison, the lowest recorded temperature on Earth is minus 128.6 degrees F (minus 88 degrees C) in Antarctica according to Arizona State University.
NASA’s Mars Curiosity Rover measured air temperatures as high as 6C (about 43F), “with temperatures climbing above freezing for a significant number of days.” But temperatures can vary wildly even on a single day: “[T]he Perseverance rover recorded a high of 8 degrees F and a low of -112 degrees F on January 29, 2022.” And it’s dry in the daytime: “…where the relative humidity is high and the available water vapor is approximately 100 precipitable microns, is the equivalent of the drier parts of the Atacama Desert in Chile.”
Consider that, although there are seasonal people there all year round, mostly researchers, the conditions are so challenging that there is no permanent population in Antarctica. While it is one of the seven most hostile environments on Earth, it is generally warmer and certainly less toxic than Mars (although winter temperatures can fall to about -70C or minus 94F). No one can survive there without significant infrastructure, technical, and supply support. Mars is almost unimaginably harsher.
Racist felon dictator and technological illiterate Donald Trump announced in January of this year that “We will lead the world in space and reach Mars before the end of my term.” However, the cognitively-challenged fuhrer “did not specify whether he meant landing humans on Mars or an uncrewed spaceflight.” Given that Trump intends to rule in perpetuity, the “end of my term” might not come until he finally shuffles off this mortal coil, some years hence.
As Newsweek reported, experts in the field guffawed at Trump’s ignorance and debunked his unrealistic schedule:
…experts say such a timeline is unrealistic. Bleddyn Bowen, from the School of Government and International Affairs at Durham University in the U.K. told Newsweek that the time frame set out by Musk and Trump is not viable at all.
“There’s no realistic time frame at all for such a thing. It requires huge resources that nobody is committing for a human landing on Mars,” Bowen said.
Kani Sathasivam, professor of international relations at Salem State University in Massachusetts, warned that, “To push for an early date risks a catastrophic and traumatic (and potentially embarrassing) failure. The key obstacle remains that our engines are still not fast enough, and the overly lengthy time it would take to travel to Mars exposes those humans to too much deadly, potentially fatal, radiation, for which we don’t yet have sufficient protective technology. So, we will need a huge breakthrough in either propulsion technology or radiation protection technology, or ideally in both.”
And while we wait for a breakthrough — any relevant breakthrough that upends the laws of physics would help — SpaceX continues to blow up rockets instead of sending them into orbit and Musk’s promises and predictions keep getting pushed forward as reality takes its toll on them. Maybe it’s all meant to distract us from the damage and destruction the SpaceNazi Musk and his cabal are doing to the American people.
Notes:
* The planned rocket to carry payloads to the Moon and beyond is SpaceX’s Starship, which, so far, isn’t doing very well. It has mostly failed the previous eight flight tests, including the most recent one (March, 2025) that lost communications after 9 minutes and 30 seconds then exploded over the Caribbean.
** Musk recently predicted Tesla would produce “10,000 to 12,000 Optimus robots this year” (2025) with a further “50,000-ish next year.” But since the world has turned against Musk and Tesla protests are taking place worldwide, with vehicle sales tanking, the stock value plummeting, and owners are trying desperately to dump their Teslas, I suspect this, like his other “predictions” to be rather more than optimistic. Besides, who is going to buy these mechanical toys? There are not that many billionaires in the USA who will want one, and the average working person won’t need or wants a device designed to replace him or her in the workplace and steal their wages. Plus, worldwide, people hate Musk enough they will boycott them, even if they can afford one.
Words: 3,820
https://www.yahoo.com/news/know-nasa-adds-spacexs-starship-005003287.html
Despite recent test failures, NASA has added SpaceX’s Starship to its Launch Services Program contract, allowing it to compete for future science missions once it achieves a successful orbital flight. Florida Today reports:
NASA announced the addition Friday to its current launch provider contract with SpaceX, which covers the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. This opens the possibility of Starship flying future NASA science missions — that is once Starship reaches a successful orbital flight.
https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/03/europes-first-private-launch-company-is-learning-to-embrace-failure/
The first flight of Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum rocket lasted just 40 seconds
“Today, we know twice as much about our launch system as yesterday before launch.”
The first flight of Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum rocket didn’t last long on Sunday. The booster’s nine engines switched off as the rocket cartwheeled upside-down and fell a short distance from its Arctic launch pad in Norway, punctuating the abbreviated test flight with a spectacular fiery crash into the sea.
If officials at Isar Aerospace were able to pick the outcome of their first test flight, it wouldn’t be this. However, the result has precedent. The first launch of SpaceX’s Falcon 1 rocket in 2006 ended in similar fashion.
“Today, we know twice as much about our launch system as yesterday before launch,” Daniel Metzler, Isar’s co-founder and CEO, wrote on X early Monday. “Can’t beat flight testing. Ploughing through lots of data now.”
Isar Aerospace, based in Germany, is the first in a crop of new European rocket companies to attempt an orbital launch. If all went according to plan, Isar’s Spectrum rocket would have arced to the north from Andøya Spaceport in Norway and reached a polar orbit.
But officials knew there was only a low chance of reaching orbit on the first flight. For this reason, Isar did not fly any customer payloads on the Spectrum rocket, designed to deliver up to 2,200 pounds (1,000 kilograms) of payload mass to low-Earth orbit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzBhpDUJqds
Believe Me, We Earthlings Will Never Colonize Mars!
Sure, for an astronaut to walk on Mars would be an amazing and profound experience. But visiting the planet to expand the frontier of our knowledge is very different from living there permanently by forming bases and colonies. Mars is not made for humans. Mars will get you!
And now I will explain why we will never colonize Mars…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_InuOf8u7e4
Why It Would Be Preferable To Colonize Titan Instead Of Mars